Wednesday, May 11, 2011

Earthquake in Rome prediction leaves the Eternal City nervous

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Italians are apparently fleeing Rome because of a prediction in 1915 that the city would be hit by a giant earthquake today.

Local newspapers have even published survival guides and panic has been fuelled by the likes of Twitter and Facebook.

Raffaele Bendani, a seismologist, forecast that a "big one" would hit Rome - if, that is, you believe the interpretations. Before his death in 1979, he also predicted other earthquakes in Italy.

But that's not difficult, Italy is in an earthquake zone (I predict there will be an earthquake in California every day this week and rumblings in Alaska!).

However, although Rome has felt the ground shake throughout the centuries - the Colosseum was damaged in the years 443, 477, 508, and 1231 - it does not lie on a major fault line.

Says one expert: "You feel earthquakes in Rome sometimes, but they happen elsewhere; there aren't major fault lines underneath the city. So in terms of predicting a massive earthquake there, it's already a kind of unlikely place."

And, earthquakes are notoriously difficult to predict, even days ahead, let along decades.

Bendani was honoured by former Italian dictator Benito Mussolini in 1927 and is highly respected in Rome. Despite TV programmes telling residents not to take the prediction seriously, it is expected that one in five people will not turn up for work today.

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